“The only winning move is not to play.” This iconic line from the movie WarGames perfectly encapsulated the Cold War era of deterrence, where the threat of mutually assured destruction loomed large. But the global landscape has shifted dramatically. The rise of non-state actors, the proliferation of advanced technologies, and the blurring of traditional battle lines have ushered in an era of asymmetric warfare.

This mode of warfare is characterized by a mismatch in power between adversaries. It is often waged by smaller, less powerful actors who utilize unconventional tactics and strategies to exploit the vulnerabilities of larger, more conventional forces. It can involve guerrilla warfare, terrorism, cyberattacks, and the use of readily available technologies like improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and commercially available drones.

Recent examples abound, demonstrating the increasing prevalence and impact of asymmetric tactics. The Ukrainian military has successfully targeted Russian warships with relatively inexpensive drone boats in the Black Sea, impacting Russia’s more sophisticated naval capabilities. Similarly, Houthi rebels have repeatedly disrupted shipping in the Red Sea with many relatively inexpensive air and sea drones that are capable of overwhelming current naval defense systems. Such examples highlight how readily available technologies can level the playing field, enabling smaller actors to inflict significant damage and influence the course of conflicts in ways that previously would have required much more expensive and complex military assets.  

This shift towards asymmetric warfare necessitates a new approach to deterrence. No longer can the United States rely solely on the threat of overwhelming force. The U.S. needs a more nuanced strategy — one that accounts for the full spectrum of conflict and embraces asymmetric deterrence.  

Such a strategy is all the more important given the capacity for disruption is no longer confined to nation-states: Non-state actors, such as terrorists, can exploit readily available technology to inflict harm and destabilize the global order.

This is where asymmetric deterrence becomes crucial. The U.S. and its allies need to be able to counter threats by developing capabilities across the entire spectrum of future conflict:

• At one extreme of the spectrum: Low-cost, easily accessible, but potentially less reliable systems like first-person view (FPV) drones. These tools offer asymmetric advantages: for instance, they can be deployed in greater numbers and utilized in novel ways to disrupt and degrade an adversary’s capabilities. Their relative simplicity allows for rapid iteration and a swift development feedback loop in response to changing battlefield operations.

• At the other extreme of the spectrum: Highly reliable, complex, and devastating systems like nuclear weapons. They represent the ultimate “hammer” — a force so powerful that its use is almost unthinkable. These and other assets such as fighter jets and aircraft carriers remain essential for deterring existential threats and maintaining strategic stability.  

• And in between: A diverse range of systems with varying degrees of reliability and effect. These include everything from loitering munitions to emerging hypersonic technologies. Such tools provide options for calibrated responses and tailored deterrence strategies.

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The Role of Startups in Asymmetric Deterrence

Startups are already contributing to the development of asymmetric capabilities, and their ability to start with a clean slate when designing novel systems, coupled with an inherent agility and openness to alternative options, affords them unique advantages in driving further innovation across multiple dimensions, including:

• Advanced Manufacturing: Startups can leverage cutting-edge manufacturing techniques such as 3D printing and advanced robotics. This enables rapid scaling and deployment of these systems, increasing reliability while driving down cost at scale and delivering a more agile, responsive, and cost-effective defense posture. By their very nature, such systems create a rapid resupply base that can easily pivot to other applications as needed.

• Autonomy: Startups can play a vital role in developing AI-powered systems for navigation, targeting, and potentially decision-making. Already, autonomous navigation systems from commercial applications like self-driving cars are deployed in military systems, increasing the precision and responsiveness of weapons while reducing reliance on human operators. Looking to the future, additional innovation could pave the way for the development of sophisticated drone swarms capable of overwhelming defenses and achieving mission objectives in complex environments. These swarms could start with one-to-many control and then graduate towards fully autonomous operation.

• Energy Efficiency and Novel Power Sources: Startups are pushing the boundaries of energy efficiency and exploring novel power sources, critical for extending the endurance and operational range of asymmetric systems. This includes advancements in battery technology, energy harvesting, and alternative fuels, enabling systems to operate for longer durations and cover greater distances.

Specifically, startups can contribute to the creation of even more powerful deterrents against adversaries by developing:

• Advanced small drones: Ranging from FPV to autonomous, such systems offer increased range and payload capacity at scale.  

• Hypersonic missiles: Game-changing weapons that travel at extreme speeds and are highly maneuverable, making them incredibly difficult to intercept.  

• Deep-strike drones: Long-range, autonomous drones capable of penetrating enemy territory and delivering precision strikes against high-value targets.

• Loitering munitions: Small, cheap, and autonomous systems that can loiter in an area, identify targets, and attack at the opportune time.

• Unmanned maritime systems: Innovative unmanned surface vessels (USVs) and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) that can perform a variety of missions, from surveillance to mine countermeasures and even direct attacks. These systems offer a cost-effective way to enhance maritime domain awareness and provide a flexible, scalable deterrent against potential adversaries,

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An Asymmetric Strategy for Defending Taiwan

Looking ahead, these and other capabilities could play a crucial role in deterring aggression against Taiwan. China’s growing military capabilities and stated intentions towards Taiwan necessitate a robust and multifaceted deterrence strategy. A key component of this lies in the development and deployment of a wide array of asymmetric maritime vessels and systems. These could include, but are not limited to, manned fast attack craft armed with anti-ship missiles, UUVs and USVs capable of disrupting naval operations, and sea mines designed to deny access to key waterways.  

The ability to impose significant costs on any invasion attempt, even by a larger force, is essential for maintaining stability in the region. The relatively low cost and high effectiveness of such systems offer a credible deterrent, making any invasion a much riskier proposition for China.

By investing in these and other emerging technologies — and by fostering a vibrant system of innovative startups developing and supporting them — the U.S. can construct a robust and adaptable deterrence framework that addresses the full spectrum of conflict in the 21st century. This framework offers two critical layers of security. First, much like nuclear deterrence, the very knowledge that we possess and are actively developing these asymmetric capabilities serves as a powerful deterrent in itself, dissuading potential adversaries from aggression. Second, and equally important, we must consider the scenarios in which these capabilities are used against us. Therefore, our investment must also prioritize the development of cost-effective defensive mechanisms, ensuring we can effectively counter asymmetric attacks without bankrupting ourselves in the process.

The future of conflict is now and it demands this new, two-pronged approach — one that embraces asymmetric capabilities for both deterrence and defense, leveraging the ingenuity of startups to ensure stability and security in an increasingly volatile world. This is a vital strategic contest that the U.S. and its allies can — and absolutely must — win.